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The surge in international oil prices may lead to a collective strengthening of bulk commodities

The surge in international oil prices may lead to a collective strengthening of bulk commodities

  • Categories:News Center
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  • Time of issue:2011-04-29 00:00
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(Summary description)

The surge in international oil prices may lead to a collective strengthening of bulk commodities

(Summary description)

  • Categories:News Center
  • Author:
  • Origin:
  • Time of issue:2011-04-29 00:00
  • Views:
Information

After two days of repetition, the international oil price once again broke through the $80 mark and rose to the highest point in nearly two months on Wednesday. This not only means that the window for domestic refined oil price adjustments is about to open again, but also implies that a subsequent wave of commodity price increases may follow, and related industries will also be affected. Many experts expressed concern about this.

Petrochemical industry under pressure

At the "3rd Shandong Refining Market and Development Summit" hosted by China Chemical Network yesterday, Shu Zhaoxia, chief expert of Sinopec Economic and Technology Research Institute, told reporters that crude oil is one of the most important commodities in the world. , Its price rise and fall have a certain driving effect on other bulk commodities. This time the international oil price has returned to 80 US dollars, regardless of whether the domestic refined oil price is adjusted or not, it will be detrimental to the entire petrochemical industry.

"Assuming that international oil prices continue to rise and break through US$85, while domestic refined oil prices do not follow the adjustment, the refining industry will face unprecedented pressure and is likely to fall back into losses. Even if domestic refined oil prices follow the upward adjustment, the cost pressure of international oil prices will also be transmitted to downstream processing companies, weakening the latter’s competitiveness and damaging the real economy. "Shu Zhaoxia said.

She analyzed that once the international oil price rises to a certain level, the domestic refined oil price adjustment decision will become very difficult. "It is not going to increase, nor is it not going to rise, because it will threaten economic recovery."

"In general, maintaining international oil prices between US$75 and US$85 is most beneficial to the domestic economic recovery. "Shu Zhaoxia believes that the world economy will recover slowly this year, and world oil demand will resume positive growth, but inventories will remain high. It is expected that world oil supply will slightly exceed demand and the average oil price will be higher than last year.

Be wary of speculative fund hype

She also reminded all walks of life that the role of oil price speculation funds should not be ignored. "We must see that the return of speculative funds to the oil market after increased liquidity was one of the important factors for the rise in oil prices last year."

Zhu Fang, deputy director of the Information Department of the China Petrochemical Association, told reporters on the sidelines of the meeting: "Recently, the crude oil futures holdings of the New York Mercantile Exchange have grown very fast, indicating that speculative funds have indeed entered. From the perspective of futures fundamentals, the outlook for international oil prices is likely to continue to rise. ”

He worries that if oil prices, coal prices, and electricity prices are all driven by the rise in international oil prices, other commodities in the relevant industry chain may regain strength.

On Wednesday, New York oil prices closed at a two-month high of US$82.93 per barrel. As of yesterday’s deadline, oil prices had fallen to US$81.89.

 

-----Source "China Chemical Network"

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